The test of the price at 1.3611 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just starting to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose towards the target level of 1.3644.
The first half of today will be characterized by relative quiet on the British economic front. The absence of scheduled macroeconomic data releases for the UK means that markets are likely to continue to focus on already known factors and trends. This creates conditions for the maintenance, and possibly the strengthening, of the pressure on the British pound observed since yesterday.
The lack of fresh data, and consequently the absence of new reasons to reassess risks and prospects for the British economy, may lead market players to continue pricing in existing concerns about the stalemate in the Middle East. The absence of positive news makes the pound vulnerable to external shocks and to any negative signals from other major markets.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching an entry price around 1.3580 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.3605 (thicker green line on the chart). At point 1.3605, I plan to exit the market and also sell the pound in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can only expect a strong rise in the pound in the event of good news from the Middle East. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3558 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect a rise towards the opposite levels of 1.3580 and 1.3605.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3558 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.3525, where I plan to exit the short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level. Pressure on the pound could return if there is bad news from the Middle East. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3580 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3558 and 1.3525.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
