The euro is trading around 1.1208 under downward pressure, below the Murray 4/8 line, the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA), and the 21-period simple moving average (SMA). As we noted in our previous analysis, the euro failed to break above the 200-period EMA; technically, it is under selling pressure.

On the H4 chart, we can see that the euro is breaking out of the uptrend channel formed since October 28. If EUR/USD consolidates below 1.1217 in the coming hours, this will be considered a sell signal, and we expect it to continue falling to 1.1160, then to 1.1135, and finally to 1.1108.

Conversely, if a pullback occurs toward 1.1230 or 1.1258, this price reaction could be interpreted as an opportunity to sell, since, technically, the price is at resistance levels, and we believe this brief recovery could be seen as an opportunity to open short positions.

In the coming hours, the US nonfarm payrolls will be released. This employment report has a significant influence and directly affects the dollar; this could also trigger movements in the euro. Therefore, we believe that if the US data is positive, we could expect a strong upward move in the euro. We believe EUR/USD could reach 1.1231 or 1.1260.

In the meantime, we will look for opportunities to sell below the 21-period simple moving average (SMA) and will keep an eye on the data to be released in the coming hours, as we can expect a strong price reaction; from a technical standpoint, we anticipate that the euro will rebound again.