Monday, February 21 The week will begin with preliminary estimates of business activity indices in a number of countries, which may contribute to the growth of their currencies against the dollar. In particular, in Australia, both PMI indicators increased – both in the services sector and in the manufacturing sector. In the euro area, the index is projected to decline in production and growth in the services sector. In the UK and Germany, all indices in all sectors are expected to grow. However, the day will mostly pass quietly due to a non-working day in the United States: The President's Day is celebrated there. Tuesday, February 22 A preliminary assessment of the US business activity indices is published on Tuesday, and the picture here is expected to be exactly the same as in the eurozone. That is, despite the decline in the production index, due to the growth of the index in the service sector, the composite index of business activity will also grow. It is also worth paying attention to the consumer confidence index in the States in February. Otherwise, the day is not rich in publications. Only the IFO business climate index in Germany in February can be of interest – analysts expect the indicator to grow from 95.7 to 96.5 points. Wednesday, February 23 A meeting of the Board of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be held on Wednesday, following which a decision may be made on another increase in the refinancing rate. If the forecasts are confirmed, the New Zealand dollar will be able to significantly strengthen its position. But the final data on inflation in the eurozone are likely to be ignored, as they should coincide with the preliminary estimate (acceleration of consumer price growth from 5.0% to 5.1%). And this fact is already embedded in the value of the single European currency. Thursday, February 24 Despite the fact that the second estimate of US GDP for the fourth quarter will be published on Thursday, several other data will attract investors' attention. The fact is that the indicator should coincide with the first estimate already included in the value of the dollar. Therefore, market participants will focus on data on applications for unemployment benefits. It is expected that both primary and repeated appeals should demonstrate a noticeable decrease. Which, in turn, will help strengthen the position of the US dollar. Friday, February 25 All the most interesting things will happen on Friday during the Asian session. First, statistics on retail sales in New Zealand will be published, the decline of which should be replaced by growth. And this, of course, will help strengthen the position of the New Zealand dollar. But the yen will be under pressure due to the expected slowdown in inflation from 0.5% to 0.4%. Experts note that such price dynamics excludes the very prospect of an increase in the refinancing rate of the Bank of Japan, which will negatively affect the exchange rate of the Japanese currency. Next, data on German GDP for the fourth quarter and the import price index will be published. France will present statistics on consumer spending, producer price index and GDP for the fourth quarter of 2021.
