Monday, October 11 The beginning of the week is again accompanied by an absolutely empty macroeconomic calendar. Which, by the way, is pretty good, since market participants will have time to «digest» the data from Friday's report by the US Department of Labor. According to statistics, in September the number of jobs outside agriculture increased by only 194 thousand jobs, which turned out to be much less than forecasts. Tuesday, October 12 The most interesting thing that will be published on Tuesday is the statistics on the labor market in the UK. The unemployment rate should remain unchanged, employment may increase by 195 thousand, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits will decrease by 46.0 thousand. Such data indicate an improvement in the labor market, so the pound will have every reason to grow. But the statistics on open vacancies in the United States, the number of which may decrease by 134 thousand, is unlikely to affect the dynamics of the market, since a reduction in the number of open vacancies after a decrease in the unemployment rate is quite a logical phenomenon. Wednesday, October 13 On Wednesday, the pound may come under pressure after the publication of data on industrial production, the growth rate of which should slow down from 3.8% to 3.6%. The situation is similar in the eurozone, where the growth rate of industry may slow down from 7.7% to 6.0%. Thus, the single European currency will also be under pressure. The main event of Wednesday will be the publication of inflation data in the United States. It is expected that the growth rate of consumer prices may accelerate from 5.3% to 5.4%. However, this is unlikely to affect anything, since the Federal Reserve System will gradually tighten the parameters of monetary policy in any case. Thursday, October 14 Thursday will start with data on the labor market in Australia. Analysts predict that the unemployment rate may rise from 4.5% to 4.6%. Against the background of other countries where unemployment is either stable or declining, this will look very bad and negatively affect the Australian dollar. In the US, statistics on producer prices will be published, which, like inflation data, will have virtually no effect on the market. Although the growth rate of producer prices should accelerate by 8.3% to 8.4%. As you know, the Fed has already announced a tightening of monetary policy, and the price increase only becomes another argument in favor of this decision. Friday, October 15 The only thing worth paying attention to on Friday is retail sales in the United States, the growth rate of which may slow down from 15.1% to 9.0%. And this will inevitably lead to a noticeable weakening of the dollar, since consumer activity is the main driver of the growth of the American economy. And retail sales are just the best indicator of its condition. Therefore, the greenback will end the week on a minor note.
