Monday / Tuesday, November 1–2 The first two days of November are notable for an absolutely empty economic calendar. But this is not bad, since market participants have a great opportunity to prepare for the most important event of the week – the meeting of the Federal Committee on Operations on the US Open Market. The two-day meeting will begin on Wednesday. Wednesday, November 3 The day starts with the publication of data on the index of business activity in the UK services sector, and will continue with statistics on unemployment in the eurozone, as well as data on the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector of the United States. However, most likely, all these publications will be ignored by the market, since all investors' attention is focused on the meeting of the US Federal Reserve. Analysts note that there is still no clarity about the fate of the quantitative easing program: will it begin to be curtailed in November or will this decision be postponed until December? And for the markets now, this is a matter of principle. Most likely, the market will freeze on Wednesday in anticipation of the outcome of the meeting. If the Fed announces the beginning of the curtailment of the program from November, the dollar will continue to grow against all currencies, and stock indexes around the world may well collapse. If the consideration of the issue is postponed until December, then in this case we are waiting for a fairly confident growth of all currencies against the dollar. Thursday, November 4 In the first half of Thursday, the market will continue to evaluate the decision of the US Central Bank, and then investors' attention will switch to data on producer prices in Europe, the growth rate of which should accelerate from 13.4% to 14.8%. But the meeting of the Board of the Bank of England, which will end almost immediately after the publication of data on producer prices in the eurozone, is likely to go unnoticed. Since the British regulator outlined the timing of the refinancing rate increase at the previous meeting, the meeting on Thursday will not bring anything new. Friday, November 5 The report of the US Department of Labor will conclude the first week of November, the content of which will support the dollar. It is expected that the unemployment rate in the United States may well fall to 4.7%. But even if it remains unchanged, 300 thousand new jobs will fix it next month. It is worth noting that the current improvement in the situation on the American labor market is in itself a sufficient condition for curtailing the quantitative easing program. And if the Fed does not make this decision on Wednesday, then very good employment indicators will leave the regulator no choice but to take it at the next meeting. In any case, the dollar has much more prospects this week than other currencies.
